June 29, 2021
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD started the new week bullish and reached an intraday high at 1.3939 yesterday. Optimism that the UK remains on its way to end COVID-19 measures in July supported the British pound. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the current restrictions will be lifted by the end of July and promised to analyze if this can happen much earlier, even on 5 July. This, along with a limited US dollar demand, provoked a bullish momentum to the British Pound, despite the third bearish day in a row. However, investors remain worried that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy. It is needed to be approved by some strong buying signals before confirming that the pair reached the bottom in the near term and positioning for any further long positions increase.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair showed a bearish dynamic, having ended the day with losses around the 1.1920 level. The euro was little changed against the dollar on Monday as investors were on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s US NFP data, which could determine the path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Also, ECB’s policymakers announced that there’s no room to increase rates concerning the weak inflation, adding that the purchase program will end as soon as the coronavirus emergency is over, which isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. On Tuesday, the EU will publish the June Economic Sentiment Indicator, which is expected to provide better numbers than previously. Germany will announce the preliminary estimates of German inflation in June, while in the US, the focus will be on CB Consumer Confidence.
GOLD: Gold struggled to save the last week’s gains and fell on the first day of a new trading week. The precious metal was attempting to recover until the mid-European session. The downtrend was triggered by a modest US dollar growth, which usually tends to undermine demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold. Despite mixed signals about the US inflation, investors are still concerned about a spike in the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the Fed, which might tighten its monetary policy. Investors are probably going to wait for Friday’s release of the closely watched US monthly jobs report. Even from a technical perspective, the XAU/USD has been oscillating in a range over the past week. In this case, we wouldn’t recommend increasing long positions but instead looking for a good sign for a downtrend move.