June 28, 2021
USD/JPY: After touching a local high in the previous week, USD/JPY pulled back towards 110.50, but managed to recover its losses today. The pair is moving in a very narrow range with modest gains. The weak movement in the US dollar can be traced back to mixed economic data and fears of reflation trade as investors realized that the Fed would follow its current monetary policy despite rising pricing pressures. US Consumer Spending data remained unchanged in May, missing the market expectations of a 0.4% growth. Personal Income fell by 2% in May, while experts expected worse numbers. On the other hand, the Japanese yen is still pressured because investors are increasing their investments into the US dollar. The policymakers are worried that some sectors of the economy are facing weakness due to the COVID-19, despite an optimistic outlook on government spending.
NZD/USD: NZD/USD shows a mixed dynamic around 0.7070 level, mostly unchanged after the week beginning. The Kiwi pair had ended a three-week bearish trend by Friday’s closing as US Federal Reserve officials’ battle with reflation and President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending boosted the market sentiment. Even the upbeat US data keeps fears about the rate hike. While the US data supported the market’s inflation fears, Fed speech slowed down the dollar’s growth rate during late Friday. The same pushed back the equity gains and backed the US Treasury yields, which in turn offered a mixed trading day for the NZD/USD traders. Looking forward, a lack of major events during the day as well as the week may restrict short-term NZD/USD moves. Traders may follow China’s official PMI data in June ahead of Friday’s key US jobs report.
WTI: West Texas Intermediate oil is trading in the same range as it closed the last week, mixed so far after a solid performance on Friday with prices getting closer to the multi-month highs. The number of oil rigs operating in the US fell by one in the last week, according to the energy-services firm Baker Hughes. The count ended at 372 in the seven days through Friday. A year ago, the US had 188 rigs in operation. Meanwhile, the focus for the week ahead is on OPEC+ meeting. Traders will be watching if the cartel decides to boost supply amid the recovering demand. The group is expected to boost output by 500.000 barrels per day in August when it meets on first July as summer demand for gasoline and aviation fuel rises in North America and Europe. In this scenario, we wouldn’t recommend increasing your long positions on oil.