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Trading ideas for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and XAU/USD

July 25, 2022

EUR/USD: Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that business activity in the German private sector declined in early July. In addition, manufacturing PMI for the eurozone fell below 50 for the first time in more than two years.

Market participants will closely monitor the data on the index of business activity in the US. If these polls show that the US economy remains relatively stronger than the European economy, EUR/USD may remain under bearish pressure. It is also worth noting that futures for US stock indices fell in price. If the major Wall Street indexes suffer big losses after the first bell, the dollar may continue to strengthen. On the other hand, a positive shift in risk sentiment could help EUR/USD limit losses.

SELL STOP 1.01802/TP 1.01318/SL 1.022


GBP/USD: After falling to 1.19 on the back of a recovery in the dollar at the beginning of the European session, the GBP/USD pair recovered. However, the short-term technical outlook does not yet indicate a bullish bias. The negative shift in risk sentiment helped the dollar gain on Friday. The sharp drop in EUR/USD after the disappointing data gave additional impetus to the US dollar and forced the GBP/USD rate to turn south. However, the upbeat PMI data from the UK supported the GBP/USD pair. Although the data is hardly reassuring, it reminded investors that the UK economy as a whole is in a better position than the European economy.

BUY LIMIT 1.19398/TP 1.19914/SL 1.19072


XAU/USD: Gold’s robust recovery last week was largely driven by renewed fears of global growth after the ECB raised rates by 50 basis points, more than expected, to fight rising inflation. In addition, weak US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s manufacturing index heightened fears of an economic slowdown, confirming the metal’s appeal as a traditional safe haven. Last week, the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rose for the third week in a row. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed’s July industrial production index fell for the second month in a row, to -12.3. Risks to global growth have intensified as the Fed is set to raise interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets next week to decide on monetary policy. This was reflected in a sharp rise in US bonds as Treasury yields fell sharply across the curve. Base 10-year rates in the US again fell below the key level of 3%.

BUY LIMIT 1718.42/TP 1726.77/SL 1712.27