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Trading ideas for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and WTI

July 04, 2022

EUR/USD: EUR/USD remains weak. Rising inflation in the United States pretty much spoiled the mood of investors. The US consumer price index added 0.6% in May after rising 0.2% in April. On an annualized basis, the indicator showed 6.3%. Market participants are a little nervous because they know that the CPI is a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve when it makes interest rate decisions.

Today is the Fourth of July federal holiday in the US, and statistics on the US labor market will be released only next week. This will help investors stay strong and slowly adjust to changing conditions.

BUY LIMIT 1.03915/TP 1.04325/SL 1.03687


GBP/USD: Analysts say that if expectations for BoE policy do not align with the hawkish guidance of the Federal Reserve, it can be argued that there is a risk of further weakening of the pound sterling. They see the risk of the GBP/USD pair falling to 1.18 in the three-month perspective.

In recent sessions, the market began to pay attention to downside risks to growth prospects in the US. Various economic indicators suggest that the economy may have already slowed down. The slowdown in the UK is more pronounced as the cost-of-living crisis has been evident for several months now. Perhaps the problems faced by politicians in the UK are among the most difficult in the developed world. CPI inflation in the UK has not yet peaked and labor market conflicts indicate that higher inflation expectations may have taken root. Recently, however, consumer confidence in the UK has tumbled and business sentiment has begun to tumble as well.

BUY LIMIT 1.19928/TP 1.20745/SL 1.19442


WTI: Recent news from Bloomberg, indicating Iran’s willingness to lower prices, is putting pressure on black gold, while fears of an economic slowdown and the recent strengthening of the US dollar can be called key obstacles for oil buyers. Iran is forced to lower the price of its already cheap oil even further as its main ally strengthens its position in the key Chinese market. Given concerns about increased supply and a looming recession, black gold prices are likely to decline. However, the movement of the US dollar will be important to monitor for clear directions, which in turn illuminate this week’s Fed minutes and US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) reports.

SELL STOP 107.14/TP 105.22/SL 108.43