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Trading ideas for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and BRENT

July 18, 2022

EUR/USD: Due to the lack of significant economic releases, the euro is trading under the influence of external factors: investors are focused on the government crisis in Italy and gas supplies from Russia. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned after failing to agree with members of his coalition government on the amount of economic support that the authorities should provide to citizens. Italian President Sergio Mattarella did not accept his resignation and is urging the official to once again build a coalition to form a new government, so the situation before next year’s parliamentary elections is becoming increasingly tense. Germany is experiencing gas shortages due to reduced supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline, which is closed for maintenance.

SELL 1.01385/TP 1.00245/SL 1.014101


GBP/USD: Due to the lack of significant economic releases, the British pound is trading under the influence of external factors: investors are following the comments of the candidates for the post of British Prime Minister. Thus, former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak stated that if elected, the main economic priority will be the fight against high inflation, rather than tax cuts. Earlier the official promised tax breaks for businesses, but only after inflation recedes from record highs. According to the politician, tax cuts must be approached responsibly and not used only as a bargaining chip for political victory. Furthermore, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss vowed to put the British economy on an “upward trajectory” by the next election in 2024.

SELL 1.19310/TP 1.18400/SL 1.19510


BRENT: Oil is supported by the comments made by representatives of the US President Joe Biden, who is expected to call on the country’s authorities to increase oil production to combat the global energy crisis. The White House believes that there will not be a significant increase in oil production in the near future, but politicians hope that Biden will be able to achieve the promised increase in oil production in the future. However, the current rise in prices may not last long as the COVID-19 epidemic in China continues to cause “bearish” sentiments among investors: it had a negative impact on GDP of the second economy of the world, threatening to reduce the demand for oil for energy in the country. According to the latest data, it rose by 0.4% y/y in Q2 instead of the expected 1.0% and declined by 2.6% q/q instead of the forecasted 1.5%.

BUY 99.75/TP 104.40/SL 98.50