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Trading ideas for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and WTI

July 01, 2022

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded on Thursday from a two-week low against the dollar, which fell after fresh inflation data showed US consumer spending rose less-than-expected in May. The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0488, ending the North American session in the area after falling amid a deepening eurozone recession and an energy crisis fueled by the war in Ukraine. At the beginning of the quarter, traders will be keeping an eye on the euro zone inflation data due on Friday, which could give some indication of how aggressive the ECB could be in raising rates. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year bonds fell to a minimum, below the psychological level of 3.00%. Stocks also fell, with the S&P 500 down 1%. In the foreign exchange market, the DXY fell sharply after a slight gain as the yen regrouped due to falling yields. The dollar’s gains were largely unchanged given growing fears of a global recession, although Thursday’s data was far from impressive and did nothing to dampen fears that the US economy is slipping into recession.

BUY LIMIT 1.04364/TP 1.04909/SL 1.04099

 

AUD/USD: The US calendar published data on inflation, which showed that it is slowing down. The May Consumer Price Index (PCE) rose 6.3% year on year, less than expected, while core PCE, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, rose 4.7% year on year, below estimates, according to the data. US Bureau of Economic Analysis. While this is a good sign for the US economy, the same report highlights that US consumers spent less in May for the first time in 2022, with previous figures revised down, indicating the economy is not as strong as expected. At the same time, the US Department of Labor released initial jobless claims for the week ending June 25 that were higher than expected. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australia’s economic report, which will feature the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June.

BUY LIMIT 0.68761/TP 0.69007/SL 0.68597

 

WTI: Following Thursday’s meeting, OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it would stick to its plan to increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. The group has refrained from discussing an exit strategy since September. Meanwhile, the price of oil fell sharply on Thursday on recession fears and signs that U.S. gasoline demand could weaken amid high prices. The decline comes after the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories fell more than expected last week. However, analysts believe that the price dynamics still do not indicate restrictions on demand for crude oil.

BUY STOP 107.19/TP 108.59/SL 106.48