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Trading ideas for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and BRENT

July 27, 2022

EUR/USD: The euro is weakening against its main competitors – the pound, the yen and the U.S. dollar. In the absence of significant economic releases, investors are watching the development of the energy crisis in the EU. Yesterday, officials managed to agree on a gas saving plan amid Russia’s Gazprom reducing its supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline to 1/5 of its capacity, which, in turn, could have a negative impact on the winter heating season. At yesterday’s meeting, it was decided to cut the consumption of gas by all countries of the bloc by 15 percent from August to March, but the restrictions will not affect everyone. Reduction will be mandatory only in case of an emergency. Gas saving even in this form could cause additional pressure, first of all, on German and Italian industries, as well as lead to an overall slowdown of the European economy.

SELL 1.0502/TP 1.0447/SL 1.0516

 

AUD/USD: The Australian currency is weakening against the U.S. dollar today. Investors are waiting for Australian inflation statistics for the second quarter to be released today and they are likely to be weak: the annual rate is expected around 6.1-6.3%, the highest level since 1990 and twice the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target of 2.0-3.0%. If the projection turns out correct, it will confirm the fears of the regulator’s head Philip Lowe, who recently said that the country is forming a “psychological inflation”, when consumers rush to spend available capital, expecting further price increases, which only worsens the negative dynamics. This, in turn, could prompt department officials to accelerate the pace of interest rate adjustments to 75 basis points, increasing the risks of the national economy going into recession.

SELL 0.6880/TP 0.6800/SL 0.6910

 

Brent: Oil is attempting to rise today. Prices are supported by a reduction in supplies of Russian “blue fuel” to the EU through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – the “Gazprom” company announced that it will be able to ensure the loading of only 20% of its full capacity. This caused additional oil demand fears among investors. In order to partially compensate for the lack of energy, the EU countries decided to switch to energy saving, which has somewhat restrained the price growth. During the day the weekly report on U.S. inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was published. The index declined and reached -4.037 million barrels, which may support the prices of “black gold”.

BUY 100.0/TP 102.2/SL 99.0