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Oil gains as dollar drops, gains capped by rise in Covid-19

April 22, 2021

EUR/USD: The euro rose against the dollar on Monday as investors’ attention turned to the ECB meeting. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday with internal divisions over the speed of bond purchasing, expanded COVID-19 lockdowns and likely deferrals to the EU recovery fund from the background. Markets are watching what the ECB says and does intently in the midst of indications of conflict among policymakers over the future pace of bond purchase, particularly once a recovery grabs hold. The euro was last trading at $1.2035, up 0.45% on the day and near its highest against the dollar since March 4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2125. A breakout to the upside can trigger growth towards 1.2210.

BUY STOP 1.2125/TP 1.2210/SL 1.2095


USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Monday as markets sorted out the dive in U.S. treasury yields last week after the Federal Reserve repeated that any spike in inflation is probably going to be temporary. Improved risk sentiment shown by stocks to record highs also weighed on the greenback. The greenbacks shortcoming was pronounced across the board on Monday, with the greenback hitting multi-week lows against significant companions in the G10 gathering of currencies, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, and the euro. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.77. A breakout below could take the pair towards 106.98.

SELL 107.77/TP 106.98/SL 108.05


BRENT: Brent crude futures for June delivery rose by 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.33 a barrel. Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the port of Hariga and said it could extend the measure to other facilities because of a budget dispute with the country’s central bank.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell to their lowest in eight months in February – the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) said on Monday, illustrating the world’s biggest oil exporter’s commitment to its voluntary output cap to support oil prices.

However, surging COVID-19 cases in India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, dampened optimism for a sustained recovery in global fuel demand.

BUY 68.10/TP 69.95/SL 67.25